西北民族大学学报(自然科学版)

目的：分析内蒙古黄河流域近20年耕地时空格局变化，揭示其主要因素机制，并据此提出相应的对策及建议.方法：基于2000—2020年内蒙古黄河流域土地利用与统计年鉴数据，运用转移矩阵、空间自相关、景观格局指数等方法，分析该区域耕地时空演变特征及驱动机制.结果：(1)时序变化上，耕地面积呈增长趋势，20年间净增3 027.31平方公里，受政策、经济与城市化影响变化剧烈；空间分布上，耕地主要集中于中部、东部及东南部，整体趋向均衡，区域差异缩小，格局趋于稳定.(2)耕地转出以草地和林地为主，转为建设用地占21.96%，转出区位于东部、东南部和西北部局部；转入则主要来自草地和未利用地，少量来自建设用地，转入区域集中在中部、西部及东北部.(3)耕地空间分布呈显著聚集特征，以“高-高”聚集（东南部与中部）和“低-低”聚集（西南部）为主.(4)耕地变化受自然与社会经济因素共同驱动，其中第一产业、农作物总播种面积、粮食产量和人均生产总值是主要影响因素.结论：揭示近20年来内蒙古黄河流域耕地时空演变规律与驱动机制，为区域耕地资源合理利用与保护、保障粮食安全及优化耕地布局提供了理论依据.

ObjectiveTo analyze the spatiotemporal patterns of cultivated land changes in the Yellow River Basin of Inner Mongolia autonomous region over the past two decades,and to identify key driving factors,and propose corresponding strategies for cultivated land resource conservation. Methods Based on data from the Yellow River Basin Land Use and Statistical Yearbook covering 2000—2020 of Inner Mongolia autonomous region,the transition matrices,spatial autocorrelation and landscape pattern indices were employed to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and driving mechanisms of cultivated land in the region. Results(1)In terms of temporal trends,cultivated land area has shown an upward trajectory,with a net increase of 3 027.31 square kilometers over the past two decades. This growth has been significantly influenced by policy shifts,economic factors,and urbanization,resulting in pronounced fluctuations. Spatially,cultivated land is predominantly concentrated in the central,eastern,and southeastern regions.Overall distribution has become more balanced,regional disparities have narrowed,and the spatial pattern has stabilized.(2)Converted arable land primarily became grassland and forest land,while 21.96% was converted into construction land. The areas undergoing conversion were located in the eastern,southeastern,and northwestern regions. Conversely,arable land gained primarily from grassland and unutilized land,with a small portion originating from construction land. The areas experiencing arable land gains were concentrated in the central,western,and northeastern regions.(3) The spatial distribution of arable land exhibits pronounced clustering patterns,primarily characterized by “high-high” clustering(southeastern and central regions)and “low-low” clustering(southwestern region).(4) Changes in arable land are jointly driven by natural and socioeconomic factors,with the primary drivers being the primary industry,total crop-planted area,grain production,and per capita GDP. Conclusion This study reveals the spatiotemporal evolution patterns and driving mechanisms of arable land in the Yellow River Basin of Inner Mongolia over the past two decades,providing scientific basis for the rational utilization and protection of regional arable land resources,ensuring food security,and optimizing arable land distribution. Conclusion Research has revealed the spatiotemporal evolution patterns and driving mechanisms of farmland in the Yellow River Basin of Inner Mongolia over the past two decades,providing scientific basis for the rational utilization and protection of regional farmland resources,ensuring food security,and optimizing farmland distribution.